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Roti Kapada Makaan Indicators: Jan 2010

	FY 08	FY 09	FY 2010							Avg FY10
	Avg.	Avg.	Jun	July	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Q1	Q2	Q3
ROTI (Inflation Guide)
Wholesale Price Inflation	4.7	8.4	-1.0	-0.7	-0.1	0.5	1.3	4.8	7.3	0.6	-0.1	4.5
Consumer Price Inflation (IW)*	6.2	9.1	9.22	11.9	11.7	11.6	11.5	13.5	-	8.9	11.8	12.5
Wholesale Food Inflation	5.6	7.9	10.9	13.3	14.0	15.7	13.3	16.7	19.2	9.3	14.3	16.4
Food grains	4.7	8.1	14.4	13.6	14.2	14.2	13.3	16.5	16.9	13.5	14.0	15.5
Fruits & vegetables	4.0	8.7	13.5	15.5	12.0	24.6	11.1	13.7	22.4	10.6	17.4	15.8
Milk	8.4	7.3	5.1	6.0	9.6	9.7	10.0	11.5	13.4	5.7	8.4	11.6
KAPDA (Consumption Guide)
Auto & Related Sectors
Two Wheeler Sales	-4.9	5.2	14.93	18.2	21.64	7.79	11.02	38.44	59.9	11.9	15.9	36.4
Passenger Car Sales	11.8	9.8	17.5	29.31	28	20.86	30.08	37.48	116.4	12.6	26.1	61.3
Commercial Vehicle sales	4.5	-19.9	-15.1	5.2	10.8	3.4	46.0	95.8	162.9	-15.7	6.5	101.6
Consumer Goods Production
Durables	-0.9	4.5	16.2	22.1	24.7	22.2	20.2	37.3	-	15.7	23.0	28.8
Non-Durables	8.7	5.1	0.7	5.3	6.1	4.4	8.6	3.1	-	-5.1	5.3	5.9
Telecommunications
Mobile Phone Subscribers (GSM)	67.4	52.7	48.81	48.72	48.64	47.61	47.15	47.1	-	49.2	48.3	47.1
Teledensity (per 100)	26.2	37.0	39.86	41.08	42.27	43.5	44.87	46.32	-	39.9 Jun	43.5 Sep	46.32 Nov
MAKAAN (Investment Guide)
Industrial/Infra/Capex Growth
IIP	8.5	2.9	8.3	7.2	10.6	9.6	10.3	11.7	-	3.9	9.1	11.0
Manufacturing	9.0	2.9	8.0	7.4	10.6	10.0	11.1	12.7	-	3.4	9.3	11.9
IIP Capital Goods	17.3	8.1	13.4	1.7	9.2	13.3	11.0	12.2	-	1.3	8.1	11.6
Infrastructure Index	6.5	3.0	6.5	1.8	7.1	4.0	3.5	5.3	-	4.5	4.3	4.4
Sector-Wise Growth
Cement Dispatches	8.3	8.3	12.8	7.0	17.0	5.7	7.5	9.0	-	12.3	9.9	8.2
Aluminium	7.5	7.2	22.2	11.6	13.3	13.3	17.0	19.4	-	19.2	12.7	18.2
Copper	11.2	-8.5	39.7	4.6	11.4	14.6	-3.9	15.4	-	21.0	10.2	5.8
Electricity	6.3	2.7	7.0	3.3	9.8	7.5	4.7	-1.8	-	5.4	6.9	1.5
Coal	6.0	7.9	14.7	9.7	12.9	6.5	5.0	3.3	-	12.7	9.7	4.2
Steel	8.4	1.9	5.3	1.2	3.1	-0.4	1.1	11.7	-	2.8	1.3	6.4
Crude Petroleum	0.4	-1.8	4.0	-0.4	-2.6	-0.5	-2.2	-2.6	-	-1.1	-1.2	-1.9
Refined Petroleum	6.7	3.0	-3.7	-14.4	3.0	3.4	7.2	4.9	-	-4.1	-2.7	6.1
Money & Credit
Bank Credit Growth	23.7	23.9	15.8	15.6	14.1	12.6	9.7	10.1	13.6	16.5	14.1	11.1
Money Supply (M3)	21.7	20.1	20.2	19.8	19.4	19.0	18.3	18.4	17.2	20.6	19.4	18.0
Avg. Mortgage Rates	10.3	9.8	9.8	9.8	9.8	9.8	9.8	9.8	9.8	9.8 Jun	9.8 Sept	9.8 Dec
Trade Data (% Chg USD)
Import	33.5	17.3	-29.3	-37.1	-32.4	-31.4	-14.97	-2.6	-	-35.0	-33.6	-8.8
Non-oil Import	30.8	14.5	-16.5	-24.5	-25.5	-30.4	-17.2	-5.9	-	-22.2	-26.8	-11.6
Merchandise Export	25.0	7.6	-27.7	-28.4	-19.4	-13.8	-6.6	18.2	-	-30.0	-20.5	5.8

Note: Data is annual growth in terms of % chg (except for teledensity and avg. mortgage rates); * IW= industrial workers; Source: CMIE, TRAI, MOSPI, Bloomberg, Commerce Ministry.

Roti: Inflation/Food Prices

Story so far: Expensive Roti

WPI-inflation for Dec jumped to 7.31% from 4.78% in Nov. Inflation in the financial year so far (Apr to Dec) was 8.02%. Inflation already higher than RBI’s target of 6.5% by March end.
Inflationary pressures continue to build from supply side with rising commodity prices and poor kharif crop production.
Consumer price inflation went up to 13.5% in Nov due to high food prices, which is worrying.

What to watch:

Will manufactured products prices that had been benign till now, start showing an uptick as anecdotal evidence suggests?
Whether WPI inflation will continue to rise and peak by February/March partially helped by low base?
Will RBI opt for a gradual policy normalization end of this month rather than a sharp hike later?

Kapda: Consumption

Story so far: Consumption moving ahead

The consumer goods grew at 11% in Nov as consumer durables grew at 37.3%, the highest ever, after more than 20% growth for past 4 months. Consumer durables growth was supported by booming car and white goods sales.
The non-durables improved and grew at 3% yoy. The low annual growth number is because of the high base last year. Sequential growth is as high as 10%.

What to watch:

Will the growth in consumer durables output moderate as fiscal stimulus is withdrawn next fiscal?
Does the improving non-durable output suggest possibly higher rural demand in spite of drought?
Will FMCG companies continue to focus on rural market as rural income gets support from higher MSP for crops, NREG program, and larger share of non-agri income?

Makaan: Investment

Story so far: Industrial production maintains strong momentum, Export moves to positive territory

IIP for Nov’09 grew at 11.7% yoy higher than consensus estimate of 10% (IIP grew 3% m/m). IIP has increased 7.6% yoy in the period Apr-Nov compared to 4.1% same period last year. Data indicate that construction, infrastructure and auto sectors are driving growth currently.
Exports moved to positive territory reversing the downtrend seen in the past 13 months in a row: Exports increased by 18.2%yoy in Nov compared to a decline of 6.6% in Oct. It is encouraging that non-oil imports increased over previous month indicating improved domestic activities.
Credit growth improved to 13.6% as on Jan 1 from dismal 9.7% previously on favourable base and also improving incremental credit.

What to watch:

Does the accelerating capital goods growth point to improving investment environment that will help to sustain the high industrial growth in the near future?
Whether incremental growth in credit continues to improve next month or was it simply a quarter-end phenomenon?
Whether export will continue to be in positive territory on low base, higher export orders as reflected in PMI data and stabilizing regional trade?

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