FY 09	FY 10	FY 11	FY 12						FY 12 Avg
	Avg	Avg	Avg	Jul	Aug	Sept	Oct	Nov	Dec	1Q	2Q	3Q
ROTI (Inflation Guide)
Wholesale Price Inflation	8.1	3.9	9.6	9.4	9.8	10.0	9.9	9.1	7.5	9.6	9.7	8.8
Consumer Price Inflation (IW)*	9.1	12.3	10.5	8.4	9.0	10.1	9.4	9.3	-	8.9	9.2	9.4
Wholesale Food Inflation	9.1	15.2	15.8	8.2	9.6	9.6	10.2	8.5	0.7	8.9	9.1	6.5
Food grains	11.0	14.4	5.1	2.5	3.3	3.9	5.5	4.6	4.1	2.3	3.3	4.7
Fruits & vegetables	8.5	9.8	16.6	11.6	18.3	15.1	13.5	9.6	-14.9	16.4	15.0	2.7
Milk	7.5	18.7	20.6	10.8	9.4	10.3	11.1	10.9	11.0	6.8	10.2	11.0
Eggs, meat & fish	7.8	20.7	26.6	9.6	10.4	11.9	12.4	11.9	11.9	9.2	10.6	12.1
KAPDA (Consumption Guide)
Auto & Related Sectors
Two Wheeler Sales	5.2	25.8	27.3	14.7	18.3	26.5	3.5	27.0	9.71	18.5	19.9	13.4
Passenger Car Sales	9.8	28.1	25.2	-3.9	-1.0	1.6	-18.9	9.7	4.5	9.4	-1.1	-1.6
Commercial Vehicle sales	-19.9	46.7	33.9	24.4	21.1	22.0	14.6	33.4	14.8	16.2	22.5	20.9
Consumer Goods Production
Durables	12.2	18.6	14.3	9.0	5.5	9.2	-0.2	11.2	-	2.8	7.9	5.5
Non-Durables	-4.5	1.6	4.2	4.1	-0.7	-0.2	0.7	14.8	-	6.0	1.1	7.7
Telecommunications
Mobile Phone Subscriber(GSM)	52.7	48.6	45.0	31.6	29.1	27.0	24.7	21.2	-	35.9	29.2	23.0
Teledensity (per 100)	37.0	52.7	70.0	74.4	75.0	75.5	76.0	76.2	-	74.0 Jun	75.5 Sept	76.2 Nov
MAKAAN (Investment Guide)
Industrial/Infra/Capex Growth
IIP	2.9	5.3	8.3	3.7	3.4	2.0	-4.7	5.9	-	7.0	3.0	0.6
Manufacturing	2.9	4.9	9.0	3.1	3.9	2.4	-5.7	6.6	-	7.7	3.1	0.5
IIP Capital Goods	14.2	2.4	15.7	-13.7	4.0	-6.5	-26.5	-4.6	-	17.2	-5.4	-15.5
Infrastructure Index	3.0	5.4	5.7	7.8	3.7	2.3	0.3	6.8	-	5.3	4.6	3.6
Sector-Wise Growth
Cement Dispatches	8.3	10.1	4.6	10.5	6.3	2.4	-0.5	20.3	14.0	0.8	6.4	11.3
Aluminium	7.2	15.1	6.4	4.6	2.1	-2.22	-2.2	0.0	-	8.9	1.5	-1.1
Copper	-8.5	8.1	-3.7	-2.9	0.3	-0.19	9.9	6.0	-	-2.1	-0.9	-7.9
Electricity	2.7	6.1	5.5	13	9.4	8.8	5.4	14.1	-	8.2	10.4	9.8
Coal	7.9	7.9	-0.2	2.4	-15.3	-17.8	-9	4.9	-	0.2	-10.2	-2.1
Steel	1.9	5.1	9.0	15.5	8	6.6	3.8	5.1	-	9.2	10.0	4.5
Crude Petroleum	-1.8	0.6	11.9	1.4	1.6	0.1	-0.9	-5.6	-	9.5	1.0	-3.3
Refined Petroleum	3.0	-0.3	3.1	3.9	3.9	4.4	-2.8	11.2	-	5.3	4.1	4.2
Money & Credit
Bank Credit Growth	23.9	14.4	21.3	18.7	20.7	23.3	17.9	17.6	16.0	19.7	20.9	17.2
Money Supply  (M3)	20.1	18.7	16.4	16.7	17.0	16.4	14.6	15.2	15.6	16.5	16.7	15.1
Avg. Mortgage Rates	9.8	9.5	8.3	10.5	10.8	10.8	10.8	10.8	10.8	10.0 Jun	10.8 Sept	10.8 Dec
Trade Data (% Chg USD)
Import	17.3	-0.1	19.3	37.8	45.3	18.3	21.7	41.7	19.8	44.7	33.8	27.7
Non-oil Import	14.5	-2.6	18.3	31.0	35.1	23.6	22.1	45.9	-	41.3	29.9	34.0
Merchandise Export	7.6	-2.0	35.7	81.0	47.8	29.5	10.8	3.9	6.7	46.2	52.7	7.1

Note: Data is annual growth in terms of % chg (except for teledensity and avg. mortgage rates); * IW= industrial workers; Source: CMIE, TRAI, MOSPI, Bloomberg, Commerce Ministry.

Roti: Inflation/Food Prices Story so far: WPI inflation remains elevated; core inflation reverses trend and moves up

• WPI inflation in Oct at 9.73% yoy was almost at the same level as in previous month. The festival season in Oct put further pressure on already high vegetables and protein rich food items
• The sequential rise in Manufactured products inflation was 0.4% m/m, the sharpest rate of increase in last four months. Core inflation, as measured by non food manufacturing inflation (an indicator of demand pressure), accelerated reversing the earlier trend of moderation. The rapid depreciation in INR pushed the commodity prices higher even though international prices (in US dollar) fell
• The good news was that the sharp upward revisions of provisional numbers seem to be over as Aug WPI final numbers were kept as the same level as provisional

What to watch:

• Will WPI inflation start moderating in Nov but still remain above 9%?
• Does the above 9% inflation for eleven straight months after 13 policy rate hikes by RBI mean that monetary tightening has not been able to tame the inflation beast but has started to slow down investment and growth?
• Whether the RBI will pause and hold rates steady for some time after this high Oct WPI number?

Kapda: Consumption Story so far: Consumer Durables growth within IIP rebounds on inventory restocking during festival

• The Consumer Durables within IIP was the only category that exhibited strong growth in Sept at 8.7% yoy. The acceleration in consumer durables in Sept is in line with inventory build up during festival season
• Domestic Passenger car sales had the steepest monthly decline in over 10 years in Oct on supply disruption in largest car-maker Maruti Suzuki due to labour trouble, coupled with high interest rates and fuel prices

What to watch:

• Will Consumer durables growth decelerate again due to the lagged impact of monetary tightening?
• Whether automobile sales will remain muted on higher ownership cost and fuel cost inspite of new launches and freebies offered by dealers on purchase?
• Will rural demand keep the sale of two wheelers high; which is anyway less sensitive to interest rate trends?

Makaan: Investment Story so far: Industrial production drops to two year low; export slows

• Industrial production growth in Sept dropped to a two year low of 1.9% yoy from 3.6% in August. Mining sector output contracted for the second month driven by decline in coal and natural gas production. Electricity was the only sector which grew strongly backed by hydro power generation as thermal power languished. Manufacturing sector output moderated
• The capital goods sector remained volatile and declined in Sept. But the IIP ex-capital goods expanded sequentially in September. Industrial production is clearly moderating but the headline IIP number is clearly exaggerating the decline. The impact of the slowdown is getting reflected in tax collection data
• The Export growth in Oct slowed to only 10.8%yoy on deteriorating global growth

What to watch:

• Will the Industrial production growth in Oct be flat to negative on very high base, lower number of working days and slowing economy?
• Whether the moderating industry growth will pull down GDP growth for 2Q (to be announced on 30th Nov) to around 7%? Can it move below 7%?
• Will there be fiscal slippage and increased market borrowings as Corporate tax, Excise and Custom duty decelerate, disinvestment falters and subsidy bill increases?
• Will RBI announce more OMOs in coming weeks to ease the tight liquidity in the system that was exacerbated by RBI’s forex intervention?

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